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A USA Today story published today says the next generation of hybrids will be cheaper (a cut in manufacturing costs), smaller (GM plans to switch to battery packs that are about the size of a 12-pack of soft drinks), and more capable than the hybrids available today. But the "experts" USA Today quoted have different opinions about when is a good time to buy hybrids — Bradley Berman, editor of HybridCars.com says "buy now" whereas Sherry Boschert, author of 'Plug-In Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America', says "No plug, no deal."

Is anybody who hasn't already bought a hybrid really waiting for a plug-in hybrid such as the Chevy Volt? What happens when gas prices hit $5 per gallon and the Volt still is nowhere in sight? Do you go lease a Toyota Prius/ Honda Civic hybrid as a stopgap or do you hope your current car (or if you're unlucky, SUV) is still worth something by the time the Volt arrives?  

Yea, there's some waiting to be done.  The numbers are ridiculously bad for hybrids, and a used-car broker friend here in New York told me yesterday that people are pretty much in a wild-eyed panic.  

He sold a used 2008 Prius (rare as hens teeth - in as new/couple 1000 miles condition) for $27,000 last week.  That's a $12k premium over a base Civic gasser that gets 11 or so less mpg.  That works out to 108gal or $464 per year diff (15k miles @$4.29/gal), making payback somewhere near 26 years(!).

Forgetting the hysterical, at list and apples-to-apples, a $15k Civic (~34mpg) and a $22.6k Civic Hybrid (~42mpg) give you a 84 gal/$361 per year diff.  The $7,600 price premium of the Civic Hybrid will take 21 years to recover cost over the same car in gasoline.  (...and, what about that battery needing replacement?)

No one but accountants live on 'payback', but it is a good indicator of how badly the hybrid situation has blown out of proportion.  Yes, plug-ins are the future, but there's a lot of battery tech that needs to be sorted out to get there.

Having done the math, it costs us less (saves $270/mo) to drive our 20mpg car to its end with us (est 2 more years) than to freak out and buy a new hybrid.  2010/11 looks like the model year that car companies will give us their 1st wave of reaction to oil and get us 'more better' options.

According to the used car guy, SUVs are already worth little.
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Rookie co-pilot to old, veteran pilot:  "What is the first thing you do in an emergency?"
Veteran pilot:  "Wind the clock."  
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Graduate, Rodan School of Automotive Design

While I was driving to lunch today, I saw a few Pruis cars at a stoplight and began thinking, "Am I living in a world that my grandkids won't even believe 50 years from now?" Perhaps we will be the last generations of drivers who make trips to a gas station, watch for low gasoline prices, and rely on fossil fuels to take us places. I don't know about you, but I'm really thinking this may be the (very) beginning of the end for our dependence on oil.