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Although they're not showing any official photos yet, Toyota announced today that they will show a four-door crew cab version of the not-yet-on-sale Tundra pickup at the Detroit show. This truck is going to be huge! Should the big three be as afraid as everyone thinks they should be?  

Yes!  “The Big Three” need to be very afraid in anticipation of this behemoth truck from Toyota.  And here’s why:  

1. Toyota has, while perhaps not officially created, at least solidified the existence of a new type of consumer with its Tacoma and Tundra trucks:  “The Wannabe Macho Type.”  By my estimation, TWMT syndrome is typically seen amongst teenage to 30-year-old males or a man going through a mid-life crisis who wants to be seen as tough, but yet also wants something fuel-efficient, supposedly reliable, and something that can help his wife transport the kids or the groceries.  In addition, and generally speaking, TWMT consumer never uses his or her truck to haul anything expansive in size, save for the groceries or maybe some 2x4’s on occasion which, by the way, could’ve amply fit in the family minivan.  Toyota has catered to this new type of consumer better than anyone and, most recently, Honda, with its rather van-ish Ridgeline, has also opted to take in a share of the lucrative TWMT market.

2. Perception:  A lot of people have chosen to throw Chevy and Ford away, and that is a shame.  For many now see the latter two companies as completely incompetent bureaucracies that cannot recognize the true definitions of quality, of craftsmanship, and perhaps most importantly style, even if their meanings were easily spelled out.  By the way, that’s right, I said style.  For if you want a true truck (the thing that hauls almost anything with its crazy low-end torque, that has oversized cup holders, and that puts function over style for its design philosophy) you want a truck from either Chevrolet or Ford.  But, if you just want a truck because of the image concerns of driving a more practical Odyssey or a lowly sedan, yet you also require a severely unpractical Lexus-like interior coupled with above-average residual values…I’d say a Toyota truck is a pretty good choice.  

So, in essence, what we need to discern upon planning to forecast whether or not the new Tundra will outsell the Silverado or the F-150 is whether there are more TWMT consumers in the market today, or whether the real truck buyers (those that need their trucks for business) outnumber the former group.  If the former group is stronger in today’s market, the Tundra wins by an incredible margin.  However, never will the former group be the dominant group, and so I expect the Silverado and the F-150 to still, and perhaps obviously, be very competitive.  Nonetheless, as I expect the TWMT market to grow even larger, the new Tundra will overtake the new Silverado in sales.  And it doesn’t help the new Silverado that the new Tundra looks tougher.